A Conversation on Modelling TCs

An hour-long discussion between leading experts on the challenges of operational modelling (NWP) and forecasting tropical cyclones, with a focus on forecasting for the Southwest Indian Ocean.

The conversation begins with contributor introductions – from Rebecca Emerton (UoR/ECMWF), Julian Heming (Met Office), Nick Klingaman (NCAS/UoR) and Linus Magnusson (ECMWF) and then follows the topics shown below, with their approximate timing.


  1. Operational challenge for modelling and forecasting tropical cyclones [Starts 03:45]
  2. How well tropical cyclones are forecast in NWP, especially Southwest Indian Ocean [Starts 06:30]
  3. The potential range of track errors for the Southwest Indian Ocean [Starts 11:20]
  4. Factors affecting modelling accuracy for individual tropical cyclones or seasons [Starts 14:40]
  5. The modelling challenges of tropical cyclones that make landfall [Starts 18:40]
  6. Forecasting tropical cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean compared with other basins [Starts 25:00]
  7. How forecasters can use ensemble tropical cyclone forecasts [Starts 30:30]
  8. Factors affecting ensemble spread [Starts 34:10]
  9. Recent and future NWP upgrades to improve skill in tropical cyclone modelling [Starts 43:30]
  10. Where to find out more about tropical cyclone modelling developments[Starts 55:10]

EN | FR | PT