Project: Mapping Flood Risks with Future Flow and Precipitation
Images (right): Flood modelling and mapping shows how, in future climate scenarios, flooding will occur more frequently. This example uses York to show how a 1 in 200-year flood event in the 1990s (1) may occur as frequently as a 1 in 59-year event in the 2050s (2), and a 1 in 27-year event in the 2080s (3), based on flood modelling and mapping. All images copyright Ambiental.
Overview: This short project used Future Flow’s datasets from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and industrial partner Ambiental’s modelling to create a new, unique mapping service that translates future river flow predictions into flood inundation risk maps.
It models changes in river levels and rainfall taking into account the uncertainty of climate change, impacts of changes in land use and urban development. It demonstrates how, in future climate scenarios, flooding will occur more frequently.
FutureFlood explores the usability of remotely sensed data (from Copernicus Climate Change Services Sentinel satellites), borehole data (from the British Geological Society) and ancillary information such as asset databases, for evaluating urban flood modelling using historic events.
The IEA’s role was to provide prototype development and visualisation/communication tools.
The result enables better analysis and costing of the impacts of climate change-induced flood risk within the utilities and infrastructure sectors and supports better decision-making in the (re)insurance industry, for utilities companies and local planning authorities.
The project was funded by NERC (National Environment Research Council).
Timeline: December 2015 – March 2016